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91.
92.
Haifeng Zhang Jie Zhang Ping LiMichael Small Binghong Wang 《Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena》2011,240(11):943-948
Usually, whether to take vaccination or not is a voluntary decision, which is determined by many factors, from societal factors (such as religious belief and human rights) to individual preferences (including psychology and altruism). Facing the outbreaks of infectious diseases, different people often have different estimations on the risk of infectious diseases. So, some persons are willing to vaccinate, but other persons are willing to take risks. In this paper, we establish two different risk assessment systems using the technique of dynamic programming, and then compare the effects of the two different systems on the prevention of diseases on complex networks. One is that the perceived probability of being infected for each individual is the same (uniform case). The other is that the perceived probability of being infected is positively correlated to individual degrees (preferential case). We show that these two risk assessment systems can yield completely different results, such as, the effectiveness of controlling diseases, the time evolution of the number of infections, and so on. 相似文献
93.
We investigate a newsvendor-type retailer sourcing problem under demand uncertainty who has the option to source from multiple suppliers. The suppliers’ manufacturing costs are private information. A widely used mechanism to find the least costly supplier under asymmetric information is to use a sealed-bid reverse auction. We compare the combinations of different simple auction formats (first- and second-price) and risk sharing supply contracts (push and pull) under full contract compliance, both for risk-neutral and risk-averse retailer and suppliers. We show the superiority of a first-price push auction for a risk-neutral retailer. However, only the pull contracts lead to supply chain coordination. If the retailer is sufficiently risk-averse, the pull is preferred over the push contract. If suppliers are risk-averse, the first-price push auction remains the choice for the retailer. Numerical examples illustrate the allocation of benefits between the retailer and the (winning) supplier for different number of bidders, demand uncertainty, cost uncertainty, and degree of risk-aversion. 相似文献
94.
The emergence of B2B spot markets has greatly facilitated spot trading and impacted supply chain structures as well as the way commercial transactions take place between firms in many industries. While providing new opportunities, the B2B spot market also exposes participants to a price risk. This new business landscape raises some important questions on how the supplier and manufacturer should change their sales channel and procurement strategies and tailor their decisions to this changing environment. In this paper, we study the channel-choice, pricing and ordering/production decisions of the risk-averse supplier and manufacturer in a two-tier supply chain with a B2B spot market. Our analysis shows that, to benefit from the B2B spot market and control the risk exposure, the upstream supplier should develop an integrated channel-choice and pricing strategy. When the supplier adopts a dual-channel strategy, the equilibrium contract price decreases in the supplier’s risk attitude, but increases in the demand uncertainty. However, it first decreases and then increases in the manufacturer’s risk attitude and spot price volatility. We conclude that rather than simply being a second channel, the B2B spot market provides a strategic tool to supply chain members to achieve an advantageous position in their contract trading. 相似文献
95.
The present paper extends to higher degrees the well-known separation theorem decomposing a shift in the increasing convex order into a combination of a shift in the usual stochastic order followed by another shift in the convex order. An application in decision making under risk is provided to illustrate the interest of the result. 相似文献
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97.
We show that in a contest with a single prize, the expected effort made by the kth highest valuation participant bounds the sum of the expected efforts made by all of the participants with valuations less than the kth highest valuations. We also show that in the limit case of a contest with m prizes, the expected effort made by the kth highest valuation participant when the bidders are risk-neutral is greater than the expected effort in the risk-averse case. 相似文献
98.
针对决策方案的属性值为语言评价等级和区间灰数的灰色多指标群组决策问题,提出一种基于证据推理的灰色多指标群组决策方法.首先,根据语言评价信息的概率分布和效用值等价原理确定定性指标和定量指标的信用结构,进而得到群体等级信用结构决策矩阵,然后,依据证据推理方法,对群组评价信息进行合成,求出各方案在各等级的信任度,最后,利用期望方差排序方法确定整个方案集的排序.具体算例表明方法合理有效. 相似文献
99.
Yong Mei Hu Guang Hai Su Stephen Cho‐Wing Sze Wencai Ye Yao Tong 《Biomedical chromatography : BMC》2010,24(4):438-453
A simple method based on liquid chromatography coupled with diode array detection and electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (LC‐DAD‐ESI‐MS) was developed for the quality assessment of Cortex Phellodendri (CP), which was mainly derived from two species of Phellodendron chinense Schneid and Phellodendron amurense Rupr. Total 41 compounds, including 14 phenols, 24 alkaloids and three liminoidal triterpenes were identified or tentatively characterized from the 75% methanol extract of CP samples by online ESI‐MSn fragmentation and UV spectra analysis. Among them, two phenols and six alkaloids were simultaneously quantified using HPLC‐DAD method. The validated HPLC‐DAD method showed a good linearity, precision, repeatability and accuracy for the quantification of eight marker compounds. Furthermore, the plausible fragmentation pathway of the representative compounds were proposed in the present study. The differences of the chemical constituents content and the comprehensive HPLC profiles between the two CP species using LC‐DAD‐ESI‐MS method are reported for the first time, indicating that the CP drugs from different resources should be used separately in the clinic. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
100.